منابع مشابه
Short and Long Run Uncertainty Short and Long Run Uncertainty
Uncertainty appears to have both a short-run and a long-run component, which we measure using rm and macro implied volatility data from options of 30 days to 10 years duration. We ask what may be driving uncertainty over these di erent time horizons, nding that oil price volatility is particularly important for short-run uncertainty, policy uncertainty is particularly important for long-run unc...
متن کاملShort- and Long-Run Uncertainty
Uncertainty appears to have both a short-run and a long-run component, which we measure using firm and macro implied volatility data from 30 days to 10 years duration. Examining a panel of over 4,000 firms from 1996 to 2013 we find that investment is significantly more sensitive to long-run uncertainty, while employment responds equally to shortand long-run uncertainty. We build a model to inve...
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We derive an R&D-based semi-endogenous growth model where technological progress depends on the available amount of technological opportunity. Incremental innovations provide direct increases in the knowledge stock but they reduce technological opportunity and thus the potential for further improvements. Technological opportunity can be renewed only by radical innovations (which have no direct ...
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Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider forecasts of the long-horizon average of a scalar variable, typically the growth rate of an economic variable. The main contribution is the construction of prediction sets with asymptotic coverage over a wide range of data generating processes, allowing for stochastically tr...
متن کاملThe Short and Long Run Causality between Agglomeration and Productivity
This study is to investigate the short- and long-run causal relationship between agglomeration (localization and urbanization) economies and labor productivity in the manufacturing sector of 28 Iranian provinces over an 11-year period, 2001–2011. Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method was used to estimate our long-run panel data model. The empirical findings suggested that localiz...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Revista de análisis económico
سال: 2014
ISSN: 0718-8870
DOI: 10.4067/s0718-88702014000100002